Coinbase Pushes Into Prediction Markets as CFTC Weighs Event Contract Rules
Coinbase has launched a regulated prediction market platform and submitted a formal letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission last week, as a growing number of firms position ahead of the regulator’s expected rulemaking on event contracts. Coinbase’s policy chief said the prediction market sector is “maturing.” The exchange’s new platform allows users to trade on future real-world events using event contracts.
The Platform and the CFTC Letter
Coinbase (COIN) described its new predictions platform as a regulated exchange for event-based trading.
A separate cryptocurrency predictions page on the Coinbase site covers digital asset-specific contracts. Coinbase Chief Policy Officer Faryar Shirzad said the exchange submitted the CFTC letter last week and called prediction markets a sector that is “maturing” as institutional and retail interest grows.
Shirzad did not specify which CFTC proposal the letter responded to.
Event contracts, the instrument underlying prediction markets, allow participants to take positions on whether a specific real-world outcome will occur, with payouts tied to binary results. The CFTC has primary jurisdiction over these instruments when they are offered on a regulated exchange in the United States.
Background
Prediction markets moved from the legal fringe toward mainstream finance in 2024 and 2025, driven largely by political event trading during the U.S. presidential election cycle.
Platforms including Polymarket processed hundreds of millions of dollars in volume on election outcomes. The CFTC had previously moved to restrict political event contracts, but the 2025 change in administration shifted the agency’s posture toward a more permissive framework.
Coinbase’s entry into the space follows several traditional finance firms that began exploring event contract products in late 2025. The exchange’s decision to file a comment letter signals it intends to help shape the forthcoming CFTC rules rather than simply comply with them after the fact.
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What Comes Next
The CFTC’s rulemaking timeline on event contracts has not been formally published.
If the agency adopts a permissive framework, Coinbase’s early platform launch positions it ahead of potential competitors from both the cryptocurrency and traditional finance sectors. Wider approval of event contracts could also accelerate prediction market volume beyond the politically driven spikes seen in 2024.
The central question for Coinbase is whether a regulated U.S. platform can attract enough liquidity to compete with offshore alternatives that have operated with less oversight.
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