U.S. “Project Freedom” Aims to Reopen Hormuz Strait, but Experts Doubt It Will Work
CNBC reported Tuesday that the Trump administration’s newly launched Project Freedom operation is drawing deep skepticism from defense and geopolitical analysts, even as officials claim early success reopening the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic.
President Donald Trump announced the mission via Truth Social on Sunday evening. He said the U.S. would guide vessels trapped by the ongoing Iran conflict safely through restricted Persian Gulf waterways.
What Project Freedom Actually Involves
U.S. Central Command says the operation deploys guided-missile destroyers, more than 100 aircraft, unmanned platforms, and roughly 15,000 service members. The mission covers broad defensive coverage of the strait rather than escorting individual vessels, a distinction officials say makes it more cost-effective and scalable.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced Tuesday that two American commercial ships had already transited the waterway under destroyer escort. He claimed Iran had lost its grip on the chokepoint, adding that Tehran was “embarrassed” by the development. CENTCOM chief Adm. Brad Cooper said dozens of shipping companies had responded positively to the announcement.
Why Analysts Are Not Convinced
Despite the early movement, experts told CNBC the operation fails to address the core problem driving the shipping crisis. Jennifer Kavanagh, senior fellow and director of military analysis at Defense Priorities, argued the mission does nothing to eliminate uncertainty for ship captains. Insurance costs remain elevated, and most operators are still unwilling to accept the risk of transit, she said.
Kavanagh described the operation as financially unsustainable unless maintained indefinitely. A permanent military presence, she added, is not realistic without a political resolution to the Iran conflict. The strait, roughly 104 miles long and 21 miles wide at its narrowest point, previously handled around 20% of global oil supply before fighting disrupted traffic.
Background: A Critical Chokepoint Under Threat
The Strait of Hormuz has long been the world’s most consequential oil transit route. Iran’s ability to threaten vessels passing through it has historically been used as diplomatic leverage. Analysts warn that Project Freedom could harden Tehran’s posture rather than soften it, potentially delaying any negotiated settlement that would restore normal shipping volumes.
Jack Kennedy, head of Middle East and North Africa country risk at S&P Global Market Intelligence, called the operation a “limited, high-risk deterrence experiment” rather than a decisive solution to maritime insecurity in the Gulf.
The administration has not disclosed a budget or set an end date for the mission, though Hegseth described it as temporary and narrowly focused in scope.
Read Next: How Iran’s Threats to the Strait of Hormuz Have Shaped Oil Markets for Decades
