Oil Prices Could Surge to $200 If Iran War Extends Into Summer

AOL.com reported Friday that Brent crude prices could surpass $200 per barrel if the ongoing conflict with Iran persists through late June. The projection comes from energy strategists at Macquarie Group, who outlined the scenario in a client note this week. Their analysis suggests that prices would need to climb high enough to eliminate a historically large chunk of global oil demand.

The $200 Scenario and What It Means for Consumers

Macquarie’s team, led by analyst Vikas Dwivedi, assigned roughly a 40% probability to the extreme bull case. Under that scenario, US gasoline prices could reach approximately $7 per gallon. Brent futures were already trading above $103 per barrel on Friday, holding around a 3% daily gain. US benchmark WTI crude was also elevated, trading above $97 per barrel.

At those levels, oil prices would eclipse the all-time record of around $147.50 per barrel set in 2008. The strategists noted that markets remain heavily backwardated, suggesting traders still expect a relatively swift resolution. However, the group flagged that uncertainty around what a ceasefire or victory actually looks like poses meaningful upside risk to prices.

Background: A Conflict With Global Energy Consequences

The US-Israeli military operation against Iran began in late February, and its effects on energy markets have been severe. Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint handling roughly 20% of global oil and gas flows, has largely ground to a halt. Macquarie is not alone in its warnings. Saudi Arabian energy officials have reportedly forecast prices near $180 per barrel if the conflict extends into late April, while analysts at S&P Global Energy have suggested prices could reach $250 per barrel in a worst-case scenario.

Also Read: How Oil Price Shocks Ripple Through Your Wallet

Airlines and Industry Already Feeling the Squeeze

Corporate America is beginning to price in a prolonged disruption. United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby told employees in a March memo that jet fuel costs have roughly doubled. He estimated that sustained high oil prices could add around $11 billion to the carrier’s annual fuel bill. Kirby projected oil would reach $175 per barrel and might not retreat to $100 until 2027.

Macquarie’s base case remains more optimistic, forecasting a war ending around early April with limited long-term economic damage. But the strategists acknowledged that market pressure may need to intensify before any diplomatic resolution emerges.

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