Oil Prices Climb as Trump Warns Iran Ceasefire on Life Support
CNBC reported Tuesday that oil prices extended their climb after President Donald Trump declared the Iran ceasefire effectively dead, dimming hopes that the Middle East conflict would end anytime soon. Iran ceasefire oil prices moved in lockstep with Trump’s blunt assessment, rattling an already strained energy market.
Crude Benchmarks Jump on Renewed War Concerns
Brent crude futures for July advanced more than 1.3% to $105.59 a barrel during Tuesday’s session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate for June rose roughly 1.6% to $99.63 per barrel. Both benchmarks have now gained more than 40% since fighting between U.S.-led forces and Iran began in late February.
The move higher came directly after Trump described Tehran’s latest counterproposal to end hostilities as worthless. He compared the ceasefire’s survival odds to a patient with a 1% chance of recovery in intensive care. The remarks landed hard across commodity markets.
Background: A Conflict That Has Reshuffled Energy Markets
The U.S. and Israeli-led military campaign against Iran commenced on February 28. The fighting quickly drew global attention to the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow chokepoint through which roughly a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil passes. Disruption to that corridor has underpinned crude prices for months, creating one of the most volatile stretches for oil markets in recent memory.
Analysts at Citi flagged in a research note that prices remain susceptible to further gains if American and Iranian negotiators continue to struggle. Dragonfly chief intelligence officer Henry Wilkinson told CNBC that re-escalation remains a genuine risk. He added that Trump may lean on Chinese President Xi Jinping to pressure Tehran into accepting U.S. terms during anticipated trade talks later this week.
Aramco Warns Market Normalization Could Slip to 2027
Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser delivered a sobering outlook on Monday during the company’s first-quarter earnings call. He warned investors that even an immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would require months of market rebalancing. If the strait remains blocked past mid-June, he said, full normalization would not arrive before 2027. Aramco is the world’s largest oil producer by volume, giving Nasser’s comments outsized weight.
The combination of diplomatic deadlock, physical supply constraints, and a war with no visible exit path has left traders with little reason to expect crude to retreat in the near term.
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