Xi Raises Thucydides Trap Warning as Trump-Xi Beijing Summit Gets Underway
CNBC reported Thursday that U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping have launched a two-day summit in Beijing, with tariffs, Taiwan, Iran and artificial intelligence all on the agenda.
A Summit Laden With Historic Weight
Trump opened his remarks by declaring that the bilateral relationship would become stronger than it had ever been. He also noted that the two men have known each other longer than any other sitting U.S. and Chinese presidents have.
Xi used his opening address to pose a pointed question. Could the world’s two largest economies avoid the so-called Thucydides Trap, a concept describing how a dominant power and a rising rival have historically drifted toward armed conflict?
Harvard professor Graham Allison, who popularized the term, told CNBC that he expects the trade ceasefire the two leaders reached in South Korea last autumn to eventually be codified into a formal agreement.
Taiwan and Energy Security Take Center Stage
Xi stated plainly that Taiwan remains the single most consequential issue in the bilateral relationship. Mishandling it, he warned, could push the two countries toward genuinely dangerous territory.
On energy, a White House official said both sides agreed the Strait of Hormuz must stay open for global oil flows. Xi separately expressed interest in expanding Chinese purchases of American crude, partly to reduce Beijing’s dependence on Gulf shipping lanes. Agricultural trade also featured in early discussions.
Background: A Relationship Transformed Since 2017
This marks the first visit by a sitting U.S. president to China in nearly a decade. The geopolitical landscape has shifted dramatically in that period.
Scott Kennedy, senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told CNBC that China enters the room far more confident than it did in 2017. He noted that Beijing was the first major economy to retaliate against Trump’s sweeping “Liberation Day” tariffs imposed in April 2025 and has since managed to blunt much of their impact.
A delegation of U.S. business leaders accompanied Trump on the trip, signaling commercial dealmaking remains a central goal.
What Comes Next
Thursday’s opening session was only the beginning. Trump joined Xi for a visit to the Temple of Heaven and attended a state banquet in the evening. Further substantive discussions are scheduled through midday Friday, with rare earths, technology restrictions and AI governance all expected to feature in later sessions.
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