CLARITY Act Odds Rise to 68% on Polymarket as Crypto Market Structure Bill Advances
Polymarket traders lifted the probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to 68% after the Senate Banking Committee passed the bill in a 15-9 bipartisan vote. Galaxy Research’s head of research, Alex Thorn, called the committee markup “fireworks” in a post cited by Stocktwits on May 16.
Galaxy Research said the bill could reach President Donald Trump‘s desk by August. The CLARITY Act Polymarket odds movement is the sharpest single-session shift in the market’s history on this contract, reflecting a rapid reassessment of the bill’s legislative path.
What the Senate Vote Means
A 15-9 vote in the Senate Banking Committee is a strong bipartisan signal in a chamber where cryptocurrency legislation has historically struggled to advance past party-line divisions.
The bill now moves to the full Senate floor, where it will require 60 votes to overcome a procedural hurdle. Democrats voting in committee support does not guarantee floor votes, but the margin gives the bill’s sponsors a credible argument that the legislation has cross-party appeal.
Trump has previously stated public support for cryptocurrency market structure reform, which means a White House signature is considered likely if the bill reaches the Oval Office. The August timeline from Galaxy Research would make the CLARITY Act one of the fastest-moving pieces of financial regulation in recent congressional sessions.
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What the CLARITY Act Does
The CLARITY Act, formally the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, is designed to resolve the longstanding regulatory ambiguity between the SEC and the CFTC over jurisdiction of digital assets.
Under the current framework, regulators have contested which agency has authority over specific tokens, creating compliance uncertainty for exchanges and token issuers. The bill would establish a framework for classifying digital assets as either securities or commodities based on their characteristics at time of sale and the degree of decentralization of the issuing network.
Assets issued by sufficiently decentralized networks would fall under CFTC oversight. Those with ongoing securities characteristics would remain with the SEC.
The bill also addresses disclosure requirements, custody standards, and trading venue registration for digital asset exchanges operating in the United States.
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Background
The push for digital asset market structure legislation has been a recurring effort in Congress since 2022, when the collapse of Terra Luna and then FTX accelerated calls for a regulatory framework. Multiple bills were introduced in the 117th and 118th Congresses without reaching a floor vote.
The CLARITY Act’s predecessor, the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act, passed the House in May 2024 with bipartisan support but stalled in the Senate. The current CLARITY Act incorporates Senate Banking Committee feedback from that earlier effort and represents a revised approach designed to attract enough Democratic support to reach the 60-vote threshold.
Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market where users trade outcome contracts using cryptocurrency, began offering a CLARITY Act contract in early 2026. The contract had traded below 50% through most of the year before the committee vote pushed it sharply higher.
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Market Reaction
The cryptocurrency market responded positively to the committee vote. XRP (XRP) climbed above $1.50 in the hours after the result, as XRP has been among the assets most directly affected by SEC-CFTC jurisdictional uncertainty. Bitcoin (BTC) held near $78,217 with only a modest 1.3% decline, outperforming most altcoins that fell more sharply on the day. The divergence suggests the legislative signal partially offset macro selling pressure for assets most exposed to regulatory risk.
Exchanges with significant U.S. user bases, including Coinbase (COIN), would benefit from the clearer compliance framework the bill would create.
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What to Watch
The Senate floor vote is the critical next test. Supporters need to hold the 15 Democratic votes from committee and add additional crossover support to reach 60.
The House passed a comparable bill in 2024, so House passage is not the primary risk. Timing is the key uncertainty.
If Senate floor scheduling delays the vote past August, the August-desk timeline from Galaxy Research shifts to the fall, which would push implementation uncertainty into the 2026 election cycle. Polymarket contracts will continue to be a real-time signal for market participants tracking the bill’s probability as floor scheduling becomes clearer.
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