Gold Prices Climb as Iran Deal Hopes Weigh on Oil and Dollar

Benzinga reported Monday that spot gold prices rose 1.2% to roughly $4,560 per ounce in early trading, with gold ETFs drawing fresh investor attention amid shifting geopolitical winds.

Iran Deal Hopes Drive the Move

President Donald Trump said Saturday that the United States, Iran, and several regional partners are close to a peace agreement. The deal would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global crude shipments that has been closed for roughly three months. That prospect sent oil sharply lower. WTI Crude futures dropped 4.4% to around $92.34 per barrel in early Asian hours. Easing oil prices reduce near-term inflation risk for the broader economy. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index also edged down, making dollar-denominated gold cheaper for holders of other currencies.

Gold ETFs Return to Focus

Higher bullion prices revived interest in physically backed gold ETFs. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), the first U.S.-listed ETF backed by a physical commodity, holds $149.5 billion in assets under management and charges 0.40% annually. iShares Gold Trust (IAU) manages $69 billion in assets at a lower 0.25% fee. SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (GLDM) has gathered $30.5 billion in assets and charges just 0.10% per year. abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF (SGOL) manages $7.6 billion with a 0.17% expense ratio. All four funds trade millions of shares daily and offer bullion exposure without physical storage.

Also Read: What Is the Strait of Hormuz and Why Does It Matter for Oil Prices?

Fed Rate Risk Caps the Rally

Not everything favors gold right now. Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s April 28-29 meeting showed that a majority of officials expressed openness to further tightening if inflation stays persistently above 2%. Higher interest rates raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. That dynamic is acting as a ceiling on how far bullion can run in the near term. The competing forces — a weaker dollar on one side, hawkish Fed signals on the other — leave gold in a familiar tug-of-war.

Background: Gold’s Long-Term Strength

Gold has maintained a strong long-term price trend even as it faces short and medium-term volatility. The metal has functioned as a hedge against geopolitical disruption throughout 2025 and into 2026. The Strait of Hormuz closure earlier this year lifted oil and stoked inflation anxiety, both traditionally supportive for bullion. A diplomatic resolution would shift that calculus, but dollar weakness and Fed uncertainty continue to anchor demand for hard assets.

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