Shangri-La Dialogue 2026 Key Takeaways
CNBC reported Sunday that the annual IISS Shangri-La Dialogue wrapped in Singapore with three themes dominating discussion: surging defense budgets, China’s shrinking diplomatic footprint, and hard lessons drawn from the war in Ukraine.
The three-day forum, held May 29 to 31 at Singapore’s Shangri-La Hotel, drew senior defense ministers, military chiefs, and key executives from across the globe.
Defense Budgets Move From Debate to Consensus
Perhaps the sharpest shift at this year’s forum was the near-universal acceptance that nations must spend more on their own militaries. Japan, the Philippines, and the Netherlands all flagged planned increases. U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth publicly called on allies to commit at least 3.5% of GDP to defense outlays.
Even countries historically resistant to that benchmark are moving. New Zealand, still below the target, announced it is lifting allocations. Dutch deputy prime minister Dilan Yesilgoz-Zegerius told the forum the U.S. is correct to push harder on this point, crediting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine with shifting domestic opinion in the Netherlands. Canadian defense chief Gen. Jennie Carignan argued that collective security only works when every member carries its own weight.
China Sends a Junior Delegation, Again
For the second consecutive year, Beijing declined to send Defense Minister Dong Jun to the forum. Major General Meng Xiangqing of the PLA National Defence University led the Chinese contingent instead.
The absence drew pointed remarks. Hegseth said he hoped future meetings would allow direct contact with his counterpart. Japan’s defense minister Shinjiro Koizumi publicly expressed frustration and called for deeper engagement with Beijing. Germany’s chief of defense, General Carsten Breuer, said China is forfeiting valuable diplomatic space by staying at arm’s length. The Philippines was blunter still. National defense minister Gilberto Teodoro told CNBC the reduced Chinese presence was “no major loss,” suggesting Beijing’s delegates were there to deliver talking points rather than hold genuine dialogue.
Background: China’s Regional Posture Fuels Friction
Despite the thin delegation, Chinese representatives were far from passive. Meng challenged Japan’s expanding defense posture and arms exports, invoking Tokyo’s World War II record. Former Chinese vice minister of foreign affairs Cui Tiankai restated Beijing’s long-held position that Taiwan is a matter of territorial integrity, not a regional security issue.
Neither Japan nor the U.S. accepted that framing without pushback. Koizumi cited a lack of transparency in China’s military buildup, while Hegseth described regional alarm over Beijing’s expanding capabilities as entirely justified.
Ukraine’s Shadow Reaches Asia
Though the conflict is geographically distant, the war in Ukraine is reshaping how Asian governments think about deterrence, supply chains, and the speed of modern warfare. The forum treated Ukraine less as a European problem and more as a live case study in what inadequate preparation costs.
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