Iran War at 100 Days With No Peace Deal in Sight
CNBC reported Sunday that the United States and Iran remain far from any peace agreement as the conflict launched by Washington and Israel marks its 100th day. Negotiations have stalled, with both sides sending contradictory signals while continuing periodic military exchanges. A fragile ceasefire holds, but only barely, giving diplomats a narrow window.
Iran War 100 Days In and Markets Are Deeply Divided
Global asset prices have swung sharply since the war’s opening strikes. Equities outside the United States have struggled to recover, while Wall Street has largely shrugged off the turmoil. The S&P 500 has climbed to fresh all-time highs, driven by investor optimism around artificial intelligence spending. Netwealth chief investment officer Iain Barnes told CNBC that markets broadly expected a shift from a disinflationary environment toward stagflation. Yet AI enthusiasm has overridden that fear, particularly for semiconductor and infrastructure stocks.
BRI Wealth Management head of investment Toni Meadows told CNBC that countries such as South Korea and Taiwan are receiving growth upgrades on the back of AI capital spending. He also noted that because the US produces much of its own oil, Gulf disruptions carry less immediate domestic sting. Still, Meadows cautioned that prolonged conflict would eventually produce demand destruction investors cannot ignore.
How the Conflict Has Shaped Bond and Energy Markets
Government bond markets have absorbed heavy selling since hostilities began. Yields on US Treasuries surged as traders priced in higher inflation and a more aggressive Federal Reserve stance. The 30-year Treasury yield touched levels not seen since before the 2008 financial crisis last month, a stark signal of how deeply war risk has penetrated fixed-income pricing.
Premier Miton Investors chief investment officer Neil Birrell told CNBC that bond markets are reflecting genuine structural concerns, citing inflation persistence, weaker growth forecasts, and supply chain strain. UK gilts have sold off particularly hard, pressured by both the war and separate domestic political uncertainty.
Background: How the Conflict Began
The war began 100 days ago when the US and Israel launched coordinated strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, triggering an immediate global market shock. Oil prices spiked on fears of Strait of Hormuz disruption, which would throttle a critical artery for global energy supply. European equities took a heavier blow than US peers given the continent’s greater dependence on imported energy. That gap in performance has persisted into the war’s fourth month.
What Comes Next for Investors
Peace talks have not collapsed, but they have not progressed meaningfully either. Analysts watching the ceasefire warn that any fresh escalation could reignite volatility across all asset classes. The AI-driven rally in US equities provides a buffer, but consumer-facing sectors remain exposed. Inflation data in coming weeks may force central banks to act before a deal materialises.
Read Next: Why the Strait of Hormuz Still Defines Global Oil Risk
