Damodaran Says SpaceX Is Overpriced Ahead of Nasdaq Debut

NYU finance professor Aswath Damodaran told CNBC on Sunday that SpaceX’s IPO valuation is “too richly priced” for his taste, placing his own estimate hundreds of billions below the company’s stated target.

SpaceX is targeting a $135-per-share offering price that would value the company at roughly $1.77 trillion ahead of its planned June 12 Nasdaq debut. Damodaran, widely known as the “Dean of Valuation,” pegs fair value between $1.25 trillion and $1.35 trillion after reviewing the company’s recently published prospectus.

Three Businesses, One Big Wildcard

SpaceX operates across three core segments: rocket launches, the Starlink satellite connectivity network, and an artificial intelligence unit. Damodaran told CNBC that the launch and connectivity businesses carry strong unit economics and clear competitive advantages.

The AI division is a different story. He described it as the segment with the weakest margins, the steepest capital requirements, and the fiercest competitive pressure. Gross margins in that unit deteriorated through 2025 as rival large language models multiplied and delivery costs climbed. Starlink, by contrast, effectively carried the entire company’s profitability last year.

Damodaran framed the choice bluntly. Investors comfortable betting on AI upside can justify the $1.8 trillion figure. Those who are not will struggle to make the numbers work.

Why the Premium Exists

CNBC reported that Damodaran does acknowledge why a steep premium is defensible on its face. SpaceX was already privately valued near $1.2 trillion just months before the IPO filing, making the jump to $1.77 trillion look less dramatic in percentage terms. The company is also genuinely singular, he noted, with technology and infrastructure that has no direct public-market equivalent.

Even so, Damodaran described himself as an investor rather than a trader. He buys on fundamentals and avoids chasing market momentum, which puts SpaceX outside his current comfort zone.

Musk Factor and Historical Precedents

Damodaran did not dismiss SpaceX entirely as a long-term holding. He pointed to Facebook and Uber as cautionary examples. Both shed more than half their value shortly after IPO before eventually recovering. Markets reprice companies constantly, and he left the door open to revisiting SpaceX if conditions change.

He also flagged the Elon Musk variable directly. Companies under Musk’s leadership tend to generate continuous noise, both positive and negative. Anyone buying SpaceX stock at launch, Damodaran suggested, is implicitly signing up for that volatility. It is part of the package, not an exception to it.

SpaceX lists on the Nasdaq on June 12.

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