Bitcoin Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator Turns Green for the First Time Since 2023
CryptoQuant’s bitcoin bull-bear cycle indicator turned green on May 12, for the first time since March 2023, as the asset tested $82,000 intraday. Analysts said the reading may mark an early shift away from the bear phase that dominated much of late 2024 and early 2025.
The signal drew immediate attention because prior green readings in the indicator’s history have preceded sustained price advances.
What the Indicator Measures
Bitcoin (BTC) closed the prior session on May 1 near $80,500 before pushing toward $82,000 on May 12. CryptoQuant is an on-chain analytics firm that tracks blockchain data to build market-cycle models. Its bull-bear cycle indicator aggregates multiple on-chain metrics, including miner behavior, exchange flows, and realized price comparisons, to generate a single composite reading.
A green signal means the composite has crossed into territory the model associates with accumulation rather than distribution.
CoinDesk reported on May 12 that analysts framed the flip as a possible early-cycle signal rather than a confirmed breakout. On-chain metrics lag spot price moves by design, which means the indicator reflects behavior that has already occurred on the blockchain rather than predicting imminent price action.
Also Read: US Inflation Hits 3.8% as Iran War Drives Energy Prices Higher
Background
The last time CryptoQuant’s bull-bear cycle indicator registered green was March 2023, a period when Bitcoin climbed from roughly $20,000 to above $30,000 over the following weeks.
That reading came before the 2024 halving cycle and the subsequent spot ETF approval rally that pushed BTC above $100,000 in late 2024. The indicator then shifted red as the market entered a correction phase in early 2025, with BTC losing more than 25% from its peak.
The May 12 reading is the first recovery of the green signal in that stretch.
Also Read: Venice Token Carries a $777 Million Market Cap as Private AI Infrastructure Finds a Crypto on-Ramp
What to Watch
Analysts noted that a green composite reading does not guarantee continuation. Bitcoin faces macro headwinds, including elevated U.S. inflation at 3.8% as of April 2026 and ongoing geopolitical risk from the Iran conflict that has pushed energy prices higher.
The Senate Banking Committee’s scheduled vote on the CLARITY Act on May 14 could introduce short-term volatility regardless of on-chain positioning. Traders will watch whether BTC sustains above $82,000 and whether exchange inflows accelerate, which would suggest profit-taking rather than continued accumulation.
Read Next: Ethereum Holds Above $2,400 as Senate Markup Vote Looms
