Bitcoin’s Long-Term Holders Begin Selling as Price Hits Cycle Lows
CNBC reported Wednesday that bitcoin’s most committed long-term holders have begun offloading significant positions. The shift could signal the final stretch of the cryptocurrency’s ongoing bear market, according to analysts at Compass Point.
Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Reverse Course
Investors who held bitcoin for at least 155 consecutive days — roughly five months — sat largely on the sidelines from February through April. That patience has now broken. Compass Point analyst Ed Engel said in a note Tuesday that this cohort of long-term bitcoin holders unloaded approximately $2.4 billion worth of coins in just 48 hours.
Engel said the scale of those sales carries meaningful consequences for the asset’s supply and demand balance. He also noted that 26% of all bitcoin sold over the past 30 days came from buyers who originally purchased above $90,000. That group had resisted selling throughout the broader downturn but finally gave way as prices approached new cycle lows.
“Top-buyer capitulation is a very common theme in late cycle bear markets,” Engel told clients, adding that the development makes Compass Point more confident the bear market is approaching its final phase.
ETF Outflows Compound the Pressure
The selling by long-term bitcoin holders coincides with sustained redemptions across bitcoin exchange-traded funds. Tuesday marked the twelfth consecutive session of net ETF outflows, the longest such streak on record. Total net assets across bitcoin ETFs fell to roughly $85 billion, down from about $107.8 billion in mid-May.
Citi analyst Alex Saunders described ETF flows as the primary engine of bitcoin price performance, accounting for around 45% of weekly return variation. He said recent negative flows, combined with fading prospects for a U.S. market structure bill, leave the sentiment outlook weak.
Background: A Market Searching for Its Story
Bitcoin hit an all-time high above $126,000 last October but has struggled to reclaim that level. Persistent uncertainty stemming from the Iran conflict has kept a lid on prices even as equity markets have pushed to fresh records.
That divergence has unsettled investors who rely on two competing bitcoin narratives. The first frames bitcoin as a digital store of value that should benefit from geopolitical stress. The second treats it as a high-beta technology proxy. Neither narrative has found traction recently.
Bitcoin is down roughly 10% for the week. An outsized reaction to a minor sale by Strategy — just 32 coins — triggered a cascade of forced liquidations on Monday. Analysts broadly dismissed that sale as a meaningful price driver.
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