Iran Focus May Crowd Out Trade Wins at Trump-Xi Summit

CNBC reported Thursday that the ongoing Iran war is expected to dominate the Trump-Xi summit, potentially pushing critical trade matters off the table.

The meetings between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are scheduled for May 14 and 15. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has already confirmed Iran will feature prominently in discussions.

Iran Conflict Reshapes the Summit Agenda

Earlier this week, China hosted Iran’s foreign minister for the first time since the conflict erupted in late February. That meeting lifted hopes for a peace deal, nudging oil prices lower and boosting equities.

But the road to peace remains rocky. The U.S. and Iran have exchanged fire again in the Strait of Hormuz, with each side blaming the other. A Chinese-owned oil tanker was also reportedly struck in the region, according to Caixin, though CNBC said it could not independently verify that account.

Business Delegation Shrinks Before the Trip

The White House had not formally invited U.S. executives to join the trip as of Tuesday. A proposed list of roughly two dozen corporate leaders may be cut in half, a source with direct knowledge told CNBC.

The U.S. government also declined a Chinese invitation to arrange sector-specific meetings between senior Chinese officials and American CEOs. Officials were concerned the optics could suggest U.S. businesses were aligning too closely with Beijing.

Boeing and Citigroup chiefs are among those still expected to join Trump. Boeing is anticipated to close its first major Chinese order in nearly a decade on the sidelines of the summit.

A Smaller Delegation Than Past Visits

When Trump made his first-term visit to Beijing in November 2017, close to 30 executives accompanied him and signed 37 deals valued at more than $250 billion. The delegation expected this time would be notably smaller.

By comparison, Xi has welcomed leaders from more than a dozen nations this year alone, including the U.K. and South Korea, each typically accompanied by large business groups.

American Chamber of Commerce in China president Michael Hart noted that a visible Trump-Xi meeting could still ease tensions for U.S. firms operating in China. Chinese officials have grown more hesitant to engage American business since U.S. military actions earlier this year, he told CNBC.

What Progress Remains Possible

Despite the crowded agenda, some deals are still within reach. Scott Kennedy, senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, anticipates agreements covering Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans and Boeing aircraft. He also expects Trump to raise proposals for bilateral trade and investment bodies to manage ongoing commercial disputes.

For many multinationals, a credible path toward ending the Iran war may ultimately matter more than any specific trade concession. Resolving that conflict, one Chinese analyst told CNBC, would be the summit’s defining legacy.

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