Mega-IPOs Could Signal Market Top

CNBC reported Friday that a surge of mega-IPO filings from some of the world’s most valuable private companies is drawing warnings from market strategists. Several analysts believe the rush to list could signal a market top, echoing dynamics last seen during the late-1990s dot-com era.

SpaceX Sets the Stage for a Historic Float

Elon Musk‘s SpaceX confirmed a regulatory filing Thursday and is targeting a June 12 listing on the Nasdaq. The company is seeking a valuation of $1.75 Trillion, which would rank it among the largest IPOs ever recorded. Musk retains 85% of the company’s voting rights, limiting outside influence over its direction.

SpaceX’s S-1 filing openly acknowledged a track record of net losses. The company reported a $4.28 Billion net loss in its most recent quarter, following a $4.94 Billion loss across 2025. Its Starlink satellite connectivity arm generated $3.26 Billion in quarterly revenue, representing roughly 69% of total sales and the only operationally profitable segment. Its space and AI divisions both ran operating losses.

Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at AJ Bell, noted that the proposed valuation would place SpaceX at roughly 67 times sales. That is approximately three times the sales multiple currently applied to Nvidia based on recent financials.

A Dot-Com Echo Grows Louder

Zacks chief equity strategist John Blank told CNBC’s Squawk Box Europe that the pattern feels familiar. He argued that historic market peaks are typically advertised by a frenzy of large-scale listings, citing the wave of IPOs in 1999 as a direct parallel.

OpenAI and Anthropic have separately confirmed plans to go public before year-end. Neither company currently generates an annual profit, though Anthropic is expected to report its first profitable quarter in upcoming results. Deutsche Bank strategist Adrian Cox cautioned in a Thursday note that public markets have yet to properly examine the underlying economics of AI businesses at scale.

What Unprofitability Could Mean for Markets

William de Gale, portfolio manager at BlueBox Asset Management, told CNBC that the broader AI investment thesis depends on these firms eventually turning profitable. He warned that an OpenAI IPO revealing persistent losses could accelerate a broader rethink of AI valuations across equity markets. His remarks were pointed but measured, framing the scenario as a risk rather than a certainty.

All three companies cite significant future capital expenditure requirements before their core AI products reach sustainable profitability.

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