Oil Drops Below $100 After Trump Signals Iran Deal Is Near
U.S. crude oil slid below $100 a barrel for the first time in recent months on Wednesday, CNBC reported, after President Donald Trump told reporters that diplomacy with Iran was entering its closing phase.
West Texas Intermediate futures dropped close to 5%, hitting roughly $99 a barrel just after midday in New York. International benchmark Brent crude fell by a similar margin, settling near $105.64 a barrel. Both contracts erased weeks of geopolitical risk premium within a single session.
Trump’s Words Move Markets
The catalyst was a brief but significant remark from the president. Speaking to a pooled press contingent Wednesday morning, Trump said his team was in the “final stages” of negotiations with Tehran. Markets interpreted that as a strong signal that a deal limiting Iran’s nuclear program could be imminent, potentially unlocking millions of barrels of sanctioned Iranian crude.
Traders had been pricing in a significant war premium following weeks of heightened tension. A fresh supply source of that scale would shift the global supply-demand balance meaningfully.
How the Week Unfolded
Earlier this week, Trump revealed that he had pulled back from authorizing renewed military strikes against Iran. The decision came at the request of Gulf Arab allies who argued diplomacy deserved more time. That admission alone had already begun softening prices, but Wednesday’s “final stages” language accelerated the selloff sharply.
The episode illustrated how tightly oil markets remain correlated with any signal from the White House on Iran policy. The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s seaborne oil passes, has been a flashpoint throughout the standoff.
What a Deal Could Mean for Supply
A formal nuclear agreement would almost certainly trigger a phased easing of U.S. sanctions on Iranian crude exports. Analysts estimate Iran could add between 1 million and 1.5 million barrels per day to global supply within months of any sanctions relief. That volume alone is enough to pressure OPEC’s internal pricing calculus and complicate Saudi Arabia’s output strategy heading into the second half of 2026.
For consumers, a sustained move lower in crude would eventually feed through to pump prices, offering some relief after an extended period of elevated energy costs.
No timeline for a final agreement has been made public, and talks could still stall. But for now, the market is trading the optimism.
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