JP Morgan Sees Oil Above $100 Through Year-End Even After Hormuz Reopens

BBC Business reported Monday that JP Morgan expects oil prices 2026 to hold in the “low $100s” for the bulk of the remaining year, averaging $97 across 2026 as a whole. The bank’s analysis suggests a full market rebalancing is far off, even if the critical Strait of Hormuz shipping lane were to reopen within weeks.

Brent Surges as Iran Rejects US Peace Terms

Brent crude climbed more than 4% to nearly $106 a barrel on Monday before settling around $105. The spike came after President Donald Trump publicly rejected Iran’s response to US peace proposals, calling Tehran’s terms “totally unacceptable” in a social media post. Washington’s conditions had reportedly included restoring free passage through the Strait and halting Iranian nuclear enrichment. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu separately said the conflict would not end until Iran’s enriched uranium stockpiles were eliminated.

Logistics, Not Just the Strait, Are the Real Bottleneck

JP Morgan cautioned that a reopening of the waterway would not immediately restore normal supply flows. The bank said in a research note that constraints would shift from the Strait itself to tanker availability, refinery restart timelines, and broader logistical pressures. The Strait of Hormuz, which normally handles roughly one-fifth of global oil and gas shipments, has been effectively closed since hostilities began on 28 February, after Iran threatened to strike vessels attempting to cross it.

Background: A Market Transformed Since February

Brent crude recovered above $100 after a ceasefire took hold on 8 April, though energy markets have been highly volatile throughout the conflict. Trump extended that truce indefinitely later in April, giving Tehran additional time to present a unified proposal. OPEC output fell by 830,000 barrels per day in April to just over 20 million barrels per day, according to a Reuters survey cited by the BBC. Major energy companies have capitalised on the price surge. Saudi Aramco posted a profits jump of more than 25% year-on-year in the first quarter. BP and Shell also reported sharply higher earnings in recent weeks.

Energy Shock Could Stretch Into 2027

Aramco chief executive Amin Nasser told investors Monday that market normalisation will likely extend into 2027 even if the Strait reopens imminently. He described the disruption as an “unprecedented supply loss” of roughly one billion barrels. The warning reinforces JP Morgan’s view that headline diplomacy alone cannot quickly undo months of accumulated supply-chain damage.

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