Oil Prices Climb as Trump Signals Iran Ceasefire Near Collapse

CNBC reported Tuesday that oil prices extended their rally after President Donald Trump publicly dismissed Iran’s latest counterproposal to end their ongoing war, describing the ceasefire as having roughly a one-percent chance of survival. The remarks shattered expectations of a near-term diplomatic resolution and sent both major crude benchmarks higher in Asian trading hours.

Benchmarks Push Past Key Levels

International benchmark Brent crude futures for July rose roughly 0.30% to $104.51 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate for June gained a similar margin, reaching $98.40 per barrel. Both contracts have now surged more than 40% since the U.S. and Israeli-led military campaign against Iran began at the end of February, reflecting sustained supply anxiety across global energy markets.

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Trump’s Words Rattle Markets

Speaking to reporters, Trump characterized Iran’s proposed terms as “garbage” and declared the ceasefire “unbelievably weak.” He compared the situation to a patient on life support with almost no chance of recovery. The language left little diplomatic room and signaled Washington has no immediate interest in accepting Tehran’s conditions. Analysts at Citi noted in a client memo that crude prices remain vulnerable to further upside if U.S.-Iran negotiations stay deadlocked. The bank warned that volatile swings are likely to continue as long as the conflict remains unresolved.

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Conflict Has Reshaped Oil Markets Since February

The war, now entering its third month, has fundamentally repriced global energy. Both Brent and WTI sat well below $75 before hostilities opened in late February. Drone strikes attributed to Iranian forces have already struck infrastructure across the Gulf region, including a facility in Oman’s strategic port area in March. The damage to regional logistics has amplified fears about supply disruptions through key shipping lanes.

Diplomatic Wild Card Emerges

Henry Wilkinson, Chief Intelligence Officer at investment firm Dragonfly, told CNBC’s Squawk Box Asia that a fresh escalation remains a credible scenario. He suggested Trump could lean on Chinese President Xi Jinping during expected U.S.-China talks later this week, asking Beijing to pressure Tehran into accepting American terms. Whether Xi’s influence over Iran proves decisive remains unclear, but the prospect introduces another geopolitical variable into an already tense market environment. Traders will be watching any signals from those discussions closely.

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