U.S. “Project Freedom” Aims to Reopen Hormuz Strait, but Analysts Doubt It Will Work
The Trump administration launched “Project Freedom” this week to escort commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. CNBC reported Tuesday that defense analysts are broadly skeptical the mission will restore normal shipping flows through the world’s most critical oil passage.
What Project Freedom Actually Involves
President Donald Trump unveiled the initiative via Truth Social on Sunday. He said Washington would “guide” ships stranded by the Iran war through the restricted waterway. U.S. Central Command outlined the resources committed. Those include guided-missile destroyers, more than 100 aircraft operating across land and sea, unmanned platforms, and roughly 15,000 service members.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth claimed early success Tuesday. He said two U.S. commercial ships had already completed the transit under American destroyer escort. He added that Iran’s claim to control the strait had been disproven in practice.
Background: The Strait’s Role in Global Energy
Before the conflict erupted, roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply moved through the Strait of Hormuz each day, departing the Persian Gulf for international markets. The strait is approximately 104 miles long, narrowing to just 21 miles at its tightest point. Iran’s proximity to those shipping lanes gives it enormous leverage over global energy flows. The war began on Feb. 28 when the U.S. launched “Operation Epic Fury” against Iran. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters Tuesday that operation has since concluded, with its core objectives met.
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Why Analysts Are Unconvinced
Critics say Project Freedom treats symptoms rather than causes. Jennifer Kavanagh, senior fellow and director of military analysis at Defense Priorities, told CNBC the mission does not eliminate the underlying risk calculation that keeps shipping companies away. So long as uncertainty persists about safe transit, captains and insurers will remain reluctant, she argued. Individual ship escorts are also off the table, Kavanagh noted, because the resource cost would be prohibitive and the commitment would need to be indefinite.
Jack Kennedy, head of Middle East and North Africa country risk at S&P Global Market Intelligence, called the operation “a limited, high-risk deterrence experiment” rather than a decisive fix. Analysts further warned that the mission could harden Iranian positions, complicate any diplomatic off-ramp, and ultimately prolong the disruption it is meant to solve.
The administration has offered no price estimate or end date. Hegseth described the mission as “focused in scope and temporary in duration,” language that analysts say falls well short of the commitment needed.
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