SoftBank’s OpenAI Bet and Rising Debt Spark Liquidity Fears
CNBC reported Wednesday that analysts are sounding alarms over SoftBank’s swelling debt load. The warnings come even as the Japanese conglomerate enjoys its strongest share-price run in years.
SoftBank’s 70% Rally Hides a Fragile Balance Sheet
Shares in the group led by founder Masayoshi Son have climbed roughly 70% in 2026. Enthusiasm over artificial intelligence and the surging valuation of chip designer Arm Holdings drove most of that gain. The rally pushed SoftBank past Toyota in Japanese market-capitalisation rankings this week.
Yet the optimism is obscuring a precarious financial position. As of end-2025, SoftBank carried approximately 16.3 trillion yen, or around $104 billion, in standalone interest-bearing debt. The company also secured a $40 billion bridge loan in March to fund further OpenAI commitments and general corporate needs.
Also Read: OpenAI Closes Record $122 Billion Funding Round at $852 Billion Valuation
OpenAI Now Rivals Arm as SoftBank’s Biggest Holding
SoftBank joined OpenAI’s funding round last year at a reported $300 billion valuation and has deepened its position since. S&P Global Ratings estimated that OpenAI now represents roughly 30% of SoftBank’s portfolio, comparable to its Arm stake, following a further $30 billion commitment to the ChatGPT maker.
S&P revised SoftBank’s credit outlook to negative in March. The ratings agency cited likely deterioration in asset liquidity, portfolio quality, and financial capacity as reasons for the downgrade.
Richard Windsor, founder of equity research firm Radio Free Mobile, put it starkly. He told CNBC that if OpenAI fails to deliver, a liquidity crunch at SoftBank could materialise easily. Gil Luria, head of technology research at Davidson equity capital markets, added that a disappointing or delayed OpenAI IPO could create meaningful pressure given the scale of exposure.
The WeWork Lesson Looms Large
SoftBank’s appetite for concentrated, high-conviction bets has backfired before. The conglomerate poured billions through its Vision Fund into WeWork, once valued at $47 billion. Governance failures and pandemic headwinds destroyed that valuation. WeWork filed for US bankruptcy protection in 2023, leaving SoftBank with cumulative losses exceeding $14 billion.
Jay R. Ritter, emeritus professor at the Warrington College of Business, told CNBC that owning SoftBank stock is partly a leveraged wager on OpenAI’s outcome. He noted the leverage amplifies gains if OpenAI thrives but accelerates pain if the broader portfolio disappoints. Other lagging holdings, including Coupang and Didi, add further drag to an already stretched balance sheet.
