S&P 500 and Dow Futures Tick Higher as US-Iran Ceasefire Extension Awaits Trump Sign-Off

Benzinga reported Friday that U.S. equity futures were modestly positive ahead of the open, with investors watching closely for President Donald Trump’s decision on a reported US-Iran ceasefire agreement. The deal, if signed off, would extend the current pause in hostilities by 60 days and keep shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz open during ongoing nuclear negotiations.

Futures Gain as Geopolitical Risk Eases Slightly

The Dow Jones futures rose 0.16%, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures added 0.10% and 0.08% respectively. Small-caps lagged, with Russell 2000 futures slipping 0.15%. Thursday’s session closed broadly higher, led by health care, information technology, and consumer discretionary sectors. Utilities, consumer staples, and real estate were the session’s outliers, finishing in the red.

Bond Markets and Fed Expectations Hold Steady

The 10-year Treasury yield sat at 4.461% Friday morning, with the 2-year note at 4.035%. Markets are almost universally expecting the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady at its June meeting, with the CME FedWatch tool pricing in a 98.9% probability of no change.

Background: Soft PCE, Weaker Growth Cloud the Outlook

ING Think’s Chief International Economist James Knightley offered a cautious read on Friday’s macro backdrop. He noted that the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, came in below worst-case fears. However, Knightley said the softer reading would do little to shift the central bank’s increasingly hawkish tilt. He flagged rising energy costs as a growing drag on household spending power, forcing consumers to draw down savings rather than cut back on lifestyle spending. The first-quarter GDP estimate was also revised lower to 1.6% from an initial read of 2.0%, driven by weaker consumer outlays and a larger-than-expected inventory drag. Despite those headwinds, Knightley noted that geopolitical headlines from the Middle East remained the dominant market force, with data taking a back seat for now.

Commodities and Global Markets

Crude oil futures slipped 0.27% to around $88.66 per barrel in early New York trading. Gold surged 0.64% to approximately $4,524.80 per troy ounce, well below its record high above $5,595. The U.S. Dollar Index edged 0.06% higher to the 99.08 level. Asian markets were split: Hong Kong, South Korea, Japan, and Australia all advanced, while Chinese and Indian benchmarks retreated. European markets opened to a mixed session.

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