SpaceX IPO Valuation

Benzinga reported Monday that SpaceX is set to begin trading on Nasdaq this Thursday at an official SpaceX IPO valuation of $1.8 trillion. Pre-market perpetual contracts, however, are pricing the company significantly higher, with implied valuations reaching $2.15 trillion ahead of the public debut.

Traders Lean Bullish Despite Heavy Losses

Of roughly 4,500 traders holding open positions in SpaceX pre-IPO contracts, approximately 85% are positioned on the long side. The remaining 15% are short, a lopsided ratio that reflects broad market optimism around the listing.

Despite that skew toward bulls, the majority of participants are losing money. Around 78% of all open-position holders are currently underwater, with fewer than 1,100 traders in profit. Notional volume across these contracts has surpassed $450 million, spread over more than 900,000 individual trades in just three weeks.

Institutional players have staked out the largest short positions. One firm sits second among shorts with a $3.1 million exposure, while several others hold short positions ranging from $2.5 million to $4.5 million.

SpaceX Balance Sheet Carries a Bitcoin Surprise

SpaceX’s S-1 filing disclosed holdings of more than 18,700 Bitcoin on the company’s balance sheet. At current market prices, that position carries a value of roughly $1.4 billion, with unrealized gains estimated near $789 million.

The disclosure adds an unusual dimension to the IPO narrative, raising questions about whether the company’s treasury strategy influenced investor appetite or affected crypto market flows in the weeks before listing.

Background: Did the IPO Drain Crypto Markets?

In the weeks leading up to Thursday’s debut, spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced outflows totaling approximately $4.4 billion across 13 consecutive sessions. A modest reversal broke that streak, though the broader bleed was notable.

On-chain data offered little evidence of coordinated stablecoin outflows into SpaceX allocations. USDC and Tether transfer volumes remained within normal ranges throughout the period, and Bitcoin exchange activity more closely resembled typical dip-buying behavior than large-scale cash-raising.

Whether retail investors rotated funds out of crypto to fund SpaceX share purchases will remain unclear until platforms such as Robinhood and Coinbase publish their June trading volume data next month.

What Comes Next for the $1.8 Trillion Listing

SpaceX’s Nasdaq debut stands to be one of the largest public offerings in US market history. Whether the stock can justify the $1.8 trillion pricing on day one, let alone the $2.15 trillion implied by pre-market contracts, will depend heavily on first-day demand and institutional order flow.

Thursday’s open will offer the first real answer.

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