IPO Season Preview — SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic

CNBC reported Sunday that three landmark public offerings — from SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic — are poised to define capital markets through 2026 and potentially into 2027.

SpaceX Sets the Stage

SpaceX is the only company among the three to have formally filed an S-1 prospectus. Elon Musk reportedly wants a minimum valuation of $1.8 trillion for the debut. Goldman Sachs is leading the deal, displacing Morgan Stanley as the widely expected frontrunner.

Retail participation appears to be a priority for Musk. Yet who exactly qualifies as “retail” remains deeply unclear. Whether that includes Fidelity accounts, Robinhood users, or well-connected fund managers like Cathie Wood is unresolved. The process, as CNBC described it, can best be summed up in one word — chaos.

OpenAI Needs the Money

OpenAI is working on a confidential IPO filing, according to prior CNBC reporting. Its post-money valuation hit $852 billion in March. A public offering would likely need to clear $1 trillion to avoid a damaging down round.

That is a significant challenge. OpenAI carries heavy operating losses and has faced questions about leadership stability. Still, its cash needs may force it to move quickly regardless of market conditions.

Anthropic’s Stronger Hand

Anthropic stands apart from the other two. The AI safety company has reached profitability and recently completed a fundraising round that nearly tripled its valuation from February. Its prior valuation was already above $300 billion before that raise.

That financial cushion gives Anthropic real flexibility. It can afford to wait for the right moment rather than rush to market. CNBC noted Anthropic could target a fourth-quarter listing, making it likely the last of the three to price.

Background — A Market Without a Roadmap

The last time markets confronted this level of uncertainty around major technology listings was 1999. Analysts have pointed to the potential Nasdaq 100 inclusion of SpaceX post-IPO as particularly unpredictable territory. Index rebalancing rules have changed, and forced buying at scale has no modern precedent.

Late Friday trading offered a preview of that volatility. Nvidia shares dropped sharply in the final ten minutes of the session during a rebalancing event. If SpaceX enters a major index quickly after listing, similar turbulence could ripple across the broader market.

Three companies, three different situations. SpaceX has momentum but unresolved logistics. OpenAI has urgency but financial strain. Anthropic has patience and the balance sheet to use it.

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