UK Pump Prices Keep Climbing as Strait of Hormuz Stays Shut
BBC Business reported Monday that UK petrol prices have surged to their highest point since a US-Israeli military campaign against Iran began in late February, with motoring group RAC cautioning that further increases are likely without a lasting peace agreement.
Pump Prices Reach Fresh Highs
UK petrol prices climbed to 158.5p a litre on 19 May, the steepest level recorded since hostilities began. Diesel reached 185.9p on the same date. The RAC now expects unleaded petrol to breach 160p a litre in the weeks ahead. That outlook depends heavily on whether crude oil markets stabilise. Analysts estimate that every $10 rise in the oil price adds roughly 7p to each litre at the pump. Brent crude surged from $73 to as high as $126 a barrel following the outbreak of fighting, adding around £14 to a petrol fill and nearly £27 to a diesel tank.
Also Read: JP Morgan Says Oil Likely to Stay Above $100 for Rest of Year
Why the Strait of Hormuz Matters
The Strait of Hormuz is the central pressure point for global energy markets. Roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas ordinarily moves through the waterway each day. Since the conflict began, that flow has been reduced to a trickle. A ceasefire struck in April has largely held, but negotiations over permanent control of the strait have stalled. BBC Verify analysis found that only a fraction of the normal daily vessel traffic has passed through since fighting started. Investment bank JP Morgan believes oil will remain above $100 a barrel for the rest of 2026 even if the strait partially reopens. Damaged refining infrastructure across the Gulf has added further strain to global supply chains.
Background: How the UK Got Here
This is not the first time British drivers have faced painful fuel costs. During the summer of 2022, after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, petrol briefly touched 191.5p a litre and diesel approached 199p. Current prices remain below those peaks, but the trajectory is uncomfortable. The UK relies heavily on oil imports, primarily from the United States and Norway, meaning domestic prices track global benchmark movements closely. The government’s market regulator examined accusations of price gouging at forecourts and found no evidence retailers had changed pricing strategies to exploit the crisis.
Government Steps In
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer announced on 20 May that a planned 5p fuel duty rise, originally scheduled for September, would be deferred until year-end. A further cut to red diesel duty, used by farmers and rail freight operators, takes effect from 15 June. Hauliers will also receive a 12-month exemption from HGV vehicle excise duty. Drivers can use the government’s Fuel Finder tool to compare prices across local forecourts.
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