Xi Raises Thucydides Trap Warning as Trump-Xi Beijing Summit Opens

CNBC reported Thursday that President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping opened a two-day summit in Beijing with ambitious language about partnership and a pointed historical warning from the Chinese side.

The Trump Xi summit began with a morning session at the Great Hall of the People. Both leaders described the meeting as consequential. Trump called Xi a personal friend and said the two countries had an opening to build “greater prosperity and cooperation.” Xi, for his part, framed the relationship as the most significant bilateral pairing on the planet.

Xi Invokes the Specter of Great-Power War

The most striking moment came before formal talks concluded. Xi asked Trump directly whether the two nations could escape the so-called Thucydides Trap, a concept drawn from ancient Greek history. The term describes the dangerous dynamic that emerges when a rising power challenges an established one. Historically, that tension has frequently produced conflict.

Harvard professor Graham Allison, who popularized the concept, told CNBC he believes the preliminary trade truce the two leaders struck in South Korea last autumn will eventually harden into a formal agreement.

Xi also flagged Taiwan as the single most sensitive issue in the relationship. He warned that mishandling the Taiwan question could push ties into genuinely dangerous territory. Beijing regards the self-governing island as part of its territory. Taipei’s government firmly rejects that position.

Strait of Hormuz and Commodities Also Discussed

Energy security entered the conversation as well. A White House official told CNBC both governments agreed the Strait of Hormuz must stay open for global energy flows. Xi also expressed interest in buying more American oil, partly as a way to reduce China’s exposure to the strait. Expanded purchases of U.S. agricultural goods were also floated.

Also Read: US-China Trade Truce Reached at South Korea Talks

A Long History Between the Two Leaders

Trump noted that he and Xi have known each other longer than any other pairing of sitting U.S. and Chinese presidents. Trump first visited Beijing as president in 2017. The current visit marks his return as a second-term president, and the agenda is notably broader, covering tariffs, rare earths, artificial intelligence governance and Iran alongside trade volumes.

Trump extended a formal invitation for Xi to visit the United States on September 24. The two are scheduled to hold additional sessions through midday Friday, with cultural visits and a state banquet filling the gaps between working sessions.

Also Read: What the Thucydides Trap Means for U.S.-China Policy

Background: From Tariff War to Summit Table

The two economies spent much of 2025 locked in an escalating tariff dispute that rattled global supply chains and pressured equity markets worldwide. The South Korea meeting last autumn produced a temporary pause. This Beijing summit is the most direct and sustained engagement between the two leaders since that pause took hold, and markets have watched the proceedings closely for signals on whether a durable framework is within reach.

Read Next: US-China Trade Truce: What Comes After the Tariff Pause