Xi Raises ‘Thucydides Trap’ Warning as Trump-Xi Beijing Summit Opens
CNBC reported Thursday that the Trump Xi summit formally opened in Beijing, with Chinese President Xi Jinping greeting U.S. President Donald Trump at the Great Hall of the People for a two-day agenda covering trade, tariffs, Taiwan, Iran, and artificial intelligence.
A Question of War and Peace
Xi used his opening remarks to pose a pointed question. Could the world’s two largest economies avoid the “Thucydides Trap,” the historical tendency for a rising power and an established power to drift into armed conflict? The reference, drawn from ancient Greek history and popularized in modern academic circles, set a weighty tone for the proceedings.
Xi also flagged Taiwan as the single most consequential issue in bilateral relations. Mishandling it, he warned, would push the relationship toward genuinely dangerous territory. Beijing regards Taiwan as part of its sovereign territory. The island’s elected government firmly rejects that position.
Trump, for his part, opened on an optimistic note. He told Xi the relationship between the two countries was set to become better than it had ever been. Trump noted the two leaders had known each other longer than any other sitting U.S. and Chinese presidents.
Background: A Relationship Transformed Since 2017
Trump last visited China as president in 2017. The geopolitical landscape has shifted dramatically since then. Washington has layered sweeping restrictions on Chinese technology exports, and Beijing absorbed the opening shock of Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day” tariff salvo in April 2025 before retaliating as the first major economy to strike back.
Analysts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies noted that China enters this summit with considerably more confidence than it carried nine years ago. Beijing’s ability to absorb and counter American economic pressure has hardened its negotiating posture.
Also Read: U.S.-China Trade War Enters New Phase After Liberation Day Tariffs
Business Leaders, Boeing Deals, and a State Banquet
A delegation of prominent U.S. business executives accompanied Trump to Beijing, underscoring the commercial stakes alongside the diplomatic ones. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang was among those making the trip.
Thursday’s schedule extended well beyond the conference room. Trump was set to visit the Temple of Heaven and attend a formal state banquet in the evening. Further bilateral sessions are planned through Friday midday.
Harvard scholar Graham Allison, who helped bring the Thucydides Trap concept to mainstream audiences, told CNBC he expects the informal trade truce the two sides struck in South Korea last autumn to be formalized before the summit concludes.
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