Xi Raises Thucydides Trap Warning as Trump-Xi Beijing Summit Gets Underway

CNBC reported Thursday that U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping opened a two-day summit in Beijing, with bilateral trade, Taiwan, Iran and artificial intelligence all on the table.

Trump offered an optimistic opener at the Great Hall of the People. The U.S.-China relationship would become “better than ever before,” he told Xi in public remarks captured on official broadcast footage. The two leaders, Trump noted, have known each other longer than any previous pairing of U.S. and Chinese presidents.

Xi Opens With a Historical Warning

Xi struck a more sober tone before the cameras. The Chinese president asked whether the world’s two largest economies could avoid the Thucydides Trap, the concept describing how a rising power and an established one have historically stumbled into conflict. The remarks were broadcast via state television and translated into English by CCTV.

Graham Allison, the Harvard professor who popularised the concept, told CNBC’s Squawk Box Asia that a trade truce reached by the two leaders in South Korea last autumn is likely to be formalised at these meetings.

Xi also singled out Taiwan as the single most consequential issue in the bilateral relationship, warning it could push ties toward a “dangerous” place if mishandled.

Also Read: U.S.-China Trade Truce Extended After South Korea Talks

Energy and Agriculture Enter the Frame

A White House official provided detail on one early area of alignment. Both sides agreed the Strait of Hormuz must stay open for energy flows, the official said. Xi separately indicated an interest in purchasing more American crude oil, framing it as a way to reduce China’s reliance on the strait as a supply route. Expanded Chinese purchases of U.S. agricultural products were also under discussion, according to the same official.

Background: A Decade of Drift

This is the first visit by a sitting U.S. president to China in nearly ten years. The intervening period brought sharp escalation in trade tensions, sweeping U.S. restrictions on Chinese technology exports, and a tit-for-tat tariff cycle that began in earnest with Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs in April 2025. China became the first major economy to retaliate at that time.

Scott Kennedy, senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told CNBC that Beijing enters this summit in a notably stronger position than in 2017, having absorbed and largely neutralised Washington’s tariff pressure over the past year.

A Packed Schedule Ahead

The summit continues through midday Friday. Trump’s Thursday schedule included a visit to the Temple of Heaven alongside Xi and a formal state banquet in the evening. Multiple working sessions between the two leaders are planned before the talks conclude.

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