Iran Appears to Be Backing Down Over Strait of Hormuz, Petraeus Says
CNBC reported Monday that retired general and ex-CIA director David Petraeus believes Iran is beginning to capitulate in negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz. Speaking at the UBS Asian Investment Conference, the KKR Global Institute chairman said Tehran appears ready to reopen the waterway without conditions attached.
What a Deal Would Need to Look Like
Petraeus outlined clear requirements for any acceptable agreement. Iran cannot collect tolls from vessels transiting the Strait. It cannot manage or restrict shipping traffic. It also cannot retain the right to threaten future closures. He told CNBC’s Lisa Kim that such an outcome now appears within reach, describing Iran as being in the “process of blinking.”
President Donald Trump signaled over the weekend that negotiations are advancing but cautioned his team against rushing toward a settlement. Tehran has complicated talks by insisting on retaining enriched uranium inside its borders and levying passage fees through the Strait.
Iran’s Military Leverage Has Shrunk Sharply
Petraeus noted that U.S. and Israeli strikes have significantly degraded Iran’s conventional military capacity. He described an Iranian navy reduced largely to small fast boats, a missile arsenal that has been substantially cut down, and an air force that no longer functions. Military command infrastructure and key facilities have also been struck.
Despite that weakening, he warned that Iran retains enough capability to cause serious disruption. Mining operations, drone attacks, and missile strikes on commercial vessels could still throttle traffic through the 21-mile-wide chokepoint. Allowing Iran any formal role over the Strait, Petraeus argued, risks leaving the country strategically stronger even after military defeat.
Broader Issues Remain Unresolved
The Strait is only one element of an extremely complicated negotiation. Petraeus said Tehran’s nuclear enrichment program and its financial support for proxy groups, including Hezbollah, still require resolution. He was candid that those issues are unlikely to be settled quickly, saying clarity on those fronts is “not at all clear” in the near term.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio added urgency to the timeline on Monday. France 24 cited Rubio saying a deal could materialise that same day, while Reuters reported he told journalists that Washington would exhaust every diplomatic option before considering other approaches.
The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil supply. Any resolution that restores free passage would carry immediate implications for global energy markets and broader commodity prices.
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