Novogratz Warns SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs Could Signal Bull Market Peak
Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz warned on his “All Things Markets” podcast, Benzinga reported Monday, that the imminent wave of landmark listings could mark the bull market top for equities.
The Holy Trinity of Listings
Novogratz singled out SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic as the trio to watch. He argued that historic market peaks often crystallise around a single symbolic event. He cited the AOL-Time Warner merger as the moment the dot-com boom expired. The 1997 Hong Kong handover, he said, did the same for Asia’s mid-nineties rally.
Together, the three AI-era giants could carry roughly $4 trillion in combined market capitalisation. Absorbing their offerings would require institutions to raise an estimated $150 billion in fresh capital. That means selling current winners to fund new allocations, draining the very liquidity propping up today’s leaders.
Also Read: What Is an IPO and How Do Investors Participate?
What History Says About Market Peaks
Novogratz was direct in his assessment. He said that if markets eventually look back and identify SpaceX’s debut as the high-water mark, nobody should be shocked. That pattern, he noted, is simply how extended rallies tend to conclude. Polymarket traders currently price a SpaceX June debut at around 95% probability. The same platform assigns a 71% chance the company prices between $1.75 trillion and $2 trillion, which would make it the largest IPO ever recorded.
A Bull Case Still Exists
Despite the warning, Novogratz left room for further upside. He suggested that a de-escalation in Middle East tensions before Labor Day could push oil into the low $60s. That kind of price drop would give central banks the political cover needed to cut rates. He described those potential cuts as the “last juice” capable of driving one final leg higher into year-end.
Also Read: S&P 500 Performance Around Major IPO Cycles
How to Position for a Potential Turn
Rather than shorting the rally outright, Novogratz urged caution. A market this strong, he said, can inflict severe losses on those who bet against it too early. His preferred hedge is buying puts with enough time for the thesis to develop. He also flagged thinning market breadth as a warning sign. Nvidia remains the rally’s anchor, he noted, but demand still outstrips chip supply even as fewer stocks participate in fresh gains. A Polymarket contract on an AI bubble bursting by year-end prices the probability at just 22%.
